In Blog: Factually Speaking, Immigration

A version of this column originally appeared in Michigan Advance.

Michigan’s human capital, its people, are the heart of its economy. They underwrite almost every aspect of life, from the ability to plan for retirement to visiting family over publicly funded roads. But since 1960, the people who fuel the state’s economic engine have been leaving in droves. In terms of population growth in the U.S., Michigan has consistently come in 49th over a 30-year period. Making matters worse, the state faces a severe demographic crisis with birth rates projected to decrease through at least 2050 — a crisis now compounded by threats to the immigrant communities helping to fill the gap.

Immigrants, documented or undocumented, are essential to Michigan’s future, already representing roughly 60% of the state’s population growth over the last decade. 

But the current administration’s campaign of mass deportation represents a direct threat to Michigan’s immigrants, who are our neighbors, co-workers and business owners. The campaign not only threatens these people in our communities but is also a direct threat to Michigan’s fiscal sustainability, potentially removing a significant portion of the workforce and taxpayer base that the state’s economy depends on for continued growth and demographic stability.

The immigrant community brings unique strengths that particularly benefit Michigan’s economic future and are vital to Michigan’s key economic sectors. In U.S. agriculture, Michigan is the sixth largest recipient of H-2A agricultural worker visas, with 19,000 migrant and seasonal farmworkers supporting Michigan’s place as the 16th largest agricultural-exporting state by value. In auto manufacturing, immigrants comprise 14% of the workforce, which the state has identified as a priority industry. The technology sector especially benefits from immigrant innovation, with 30% of Michigan’s software developers being foreign-born — workers who nationally represent 16% of inventors but generate nearly one-quarter of America’s total innovative output when assessed by patent volume, citations received and market value. In health care, where immigrants represent 28% of Michigan’s physicians, they are filling essential roles in a sector under strain, with 32.7% of physicians nearing retirement and 65 of 83 counties designated as health professional shortage areas. 

Furthermore, immigrant tax contributions, which are long-term net positive regardless of legal status, are crucial for Michigan. Immigrants in the state are estimated to pay $5.5 billion and $2.6 billion in federal and state and local taxes, respectively. They are also 24% more likely to be of working age and therefore net fiscal contributors. Some 70,000 immigrant children currently comprise 15% of Michigan’s high school population, making them a significant portion of the future labor force and tax base. 

The state budget is sensitive to revenue changes that could create a mid-year deficit. Deporting immigrants threatens to destabilize the budget in the long run and further destabilize crucial programs like Medicare and Social Security, which undocumented immigrants pay into but cannot benefit from. But new laws and policies in 2025 aim to discourage immigration, encourage self-deportation and expel new Michiganders en masse. 

The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” imposes a new regime of immigration-related fines and fees while decreasing benefit access, rendering immigration unaffordable for many. Simultaneously, the law strips away crucial support systems by blocking lawfully present immigrants from Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and marketplace eligibility, cutting federal Medicaid funding for states and eliminating Child Tax Credit benefits for 22,300 Michigan children — U.S. citizens —  whose parents pay taxes with Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs) but lack Social Security numbers. These punitive measures transform the immigration system into a pay-to-play system that threatens to lock out would-be taxpaying community members from Michigan’s labor force. 

More fundamentally, the law launches an unprecedented campaign of mass deportation by quadrupling the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) detention capacity and flooding communities with immigration agents empowered to raid schools, churches and hospitals — once spaces of safety. The $13.5 billion allocated to expand 287(g) agreements that deputize local police to carry out immigration enforcement will further fracture the trust between immigrant families and the institutions meant to protect them. This creates a pervasive atmosphere of fear where parents avoid taking sick children to hospitals, students stop attending school and workers disappear from essential industries rather than risk detention and family separation.

Protecting and welcoming immigrants is not just a moral imperative but an economic necessity. As the state grapples with chronic population decline, an aging workforce and tight budget margins, it cannot afford to squander the demographic dividend that immigration provides. Michigan can embrace the entrepreneurs, innovators and workers that underwrite its future or watch them flee. While other states compete aggressively for international talent and investment, Michigan risks ceding its economic recovery by allowing fear to eclipse opportunity and growth. Michigan’s success will ultimately be measured not by how many people it expels, but by how many it inspires to call the Great Lakes State home.