In Blog: Factually Speaking

A version of this column originally appeared in Michigan Advance.

It’s more important than ever that our state lawmakers take bold action in making Michigan a more welcoming and attractive place for people to not only live, but thrive. Not doing so will only worsen Michigan’s population plight and declines in prosperity.

In May, the Citizens Research Council of Michigan (CRC) and Altarum released the first two research papers in a five-part series, ringing alarm bells in regard to our state’s future outlook in terms of population growth, jobs, earnings, health, educational achievement, and quality of public services at the state and local levels.

The research shows that Michigan has been falling behind other states in all six of these areas over the past 50 years and that things will only get worse if policy changes and investments are not made to help change the trajectory.

Concerning highlights from the two papers include the fact that Michigan’s population grew slower than all but one state from 2000 to 2020 and that the state’s population growth has lagged the nation for half a century, with more people leaving for other states than moving to Michigan and the state projected to lose an additional 270,000 people on net to other states by 2050. Michigan’s population is also older than average and getting older, while the population of children and young adults is projected to shrink by 6% and the working-age population is projected to stagnate by 2050.

The papers also highlight that Michigan is lagging in college degree attainment and had standardized reading and math test scores well below the national average for fourth and eighth grade students in 2022. Michigan is also behind economically, ranking 34th in real per capita personal income and real median household income.

While Michigan’s challenges are stark, we at the Michigan League for Public Policy believe there are opportunities to change the trajectory by investing in what we value most: our people. We must make the state a better place to live by focusing on improving the well-being of all Michiganders through smart policy decisions and people-centered budget priorities.

The historic increase in Michigan’s state Earned Income Tax Credit to 30% of the federal credit was a step in the right direction, but we must do more.

As Michigan lawmakers wrap up their 2024 budgets, it’s critical that they remain focused on Michigan’s people. Lawmakers should prioritize expansion of the Healthy Moms, Healthy Babies initiative, maintaining investments in the child care subsidy program, strengthening social safety net programs, strengthening healthcare and implementing a weighted school funding formula that targets resources to address opportunity gaps faced by students.

These and many of the other people-centered budget priorities the League is advocating for will help lift up Michiganders with low incomes, including communities of color who have historically been left out of prosperity and who, according to the CRC-Altarum research, are projected to make up 40 percent of Michigan’s working population by 2050. It is vital that we support these communities by reducing the health, educational and wealth-generating disparities that exist in our state.

Lawmakers must also focus on making Michigan a more welcoming and inclusive place for immigrants through budget and policy solutions like the Drive SAFE bills, which would restore driver licenses for undocumented immigrants, and the Immigrant Children’s Health Improvement Act option, which would waive the five-year waiting period for healthcare coverage for lawfully residing immigrant children and pregnant people.

These solutions, along with a weighted school funding formula that better supports English-language learners, would go a long way in making Michigan more welcoming at a time when the state’s future population growth is becoming increasingly dependent on international and domestic immigrants choosing to call Michigan home.

In fact, during the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference in May, Michigan’s state demographer shared that the migration of international immigrants coming to Michigan has partially offset people leaving the state. Since natural population growth in Michigan has slowed over the past decade, with more deaths than births, international and domestic migration has become more important than ever.

To make Michigan a better place to live, we at the League are also advocating for a more progressive and sustainable tax system. As it stands, Michigan’s tax system is upside down and deeply unfair, with the lowest earners paying a greater share of their income in taxes than top earners. This contributes to income and wealth inequalities, while exacerbating racial inequities. It also adversely impacts Michigan’s ability to raise revenue for public services that support the overall well-being of communities. It is time for Michigan to join the 32 other states in the U.S. that have a graduated income tax.

While the CRC-Altarum research warns that Michigan’s current path will lead to a shrinking population and continuing declines in the state’s competitiveness and quality of life, there are clear opportunities to change that path.

As we stand at this crossroads, the path forward must include stronger investments in people.